Capital Corner: 12 for '12
Jim Brandenburg, CPA, MST, Shareholder - Tax email | bio
January 2012
Another year is upon us, and politics, while always in the news, take center stage in 2012 as another presidential election year looms. But state and local politics are also in play, there will be the Packers, Brewers, and Badgers again, and, oh yes, it's even an Olympic year. So, here are my monthly predictions for what might happen in 2012.
January - The long-awaited Iowa caucuses are upon us. I think the GOP winner of these caucuses will not be the eventual Republican Party nominee when their convention rolls around this summer.
February - The Packers will repeat as Super Bowl Champions in a thriller over the New England Patriots.
March (actually late in February) - The 2 percent payroll tax cut (which was extended for two months on December 23, 2011) will again be extended by Congress for the balance of 2012. Republicans will seek to avoid being blamed for a tax hike in an election year and will make some concessions but not agree to a millionaire's surtax.
April - Enough signatures will be gathered to force a recall election for Governor Walker. There will be court challenges for some of the signatures and the recall procedures, but eventually a recall election date will be set.
May - The United States will see another downgrade of its credit position due to its continued debt situation.
June - The United States Supreme Court will issue its ruling on the health care reform legislation enacted in 2010. It will rule portions of the bill unconstitutional, but not all of it. The Supreme Court will direct lower courts regarding how to carry out its decision. Congress will push off dealing with any legislative changes on health care until after the November elections.
July - Governor Walker will win the recall election and continue as governor (with a smaller margin than the initial election). The Democrats, however, will wrest control of the State Senate in local senate recall elections. This Senate majority will be short-lived, as the Republicans will return to control in the November elections (due in part to the recent redistricting).
August (a bonus: two predictions here) - The Summer Olympics will shine in the fog of London, and look for Michael Phelps to do well but be surpassed by fellow Americans as the Games' top swimmer. Political conventions will occur, and look for a surprise with the vice presidential picks, including the president who may make a change from Joe Biden if he is behind in the polls.
September - For 2012, the Brewers will turn the tables and rally past the Cardinals to win the NL Central Division. A September to Remember.
October - Every election, political pundits look for an October Surprise; some major international incident to boost the incumbent. A major event will occur in the fall, but not necessarily be planned. Its impact on the election will be uncertain, despite the media hype.
November - Most likely, the economy will be the biggest factor among voters. Odds are this will be a tight race, but my prediction is that the republican candidate will win the presidency. The GOP will retain a narrow margin in the House, but the Senate will be split 50/50.
December - Congress will try to extend the "Bush Tax Cuts" past the December 31, 2012 expiration date but will fail to do so; although, they will extend the 2 percent payroll tax for another year. In one of its first acts of the new year (ok, now we're into 2013), Congress will extend the Bush Tax Cuts for all of 2013.
So, I went out on a limb. Actually, perhaps it's more like a tree full of bare limbs, and I may not have predicted very well. But, maybe I will be like the proverbial blind squirrel and find the acorn if at least one of the above occurs. Only time will tell. Stay tuned, at least for another year, as we can then revisit these predictions. All the Best in the New Year.